Think that filing before September 30, 2026, guarantees smooth sailing to your green card? Not so fast.
In this week’s episode of Global Investment Voice, hosts Mona and Rebecca sit down to debunk the myths surrounding EB-5’s grandfathering clause. The provision was born out of the chaos of 2021, when the regional center program lapsed overnight, leaving 32,000 investors and their families hanging with $15 billion in committed capital at stake.
There are multiple dates circulating and here is what people are mixing up. September 30, 2026, is not when the program expires; that’s 2027 and there is a separate clock ticking to lock in the current investment threshold. Most of all, grandfathering itself does not promise a green card. It promises adjudication.
We walk through each myth one by one explaining exactly who the clause protects, and which investors don’t even enter the conversation. The most important thing to remember amid the rush to the deadline is that one thing matters above all: A qualifying petition.
If you have deadline anxiety or all the dates are running together, tune in as we separate fact from myth.
“Grandfathering is like a seat belt. It’s not a fast pass. It keeps the crash from hurting you, but it doesn’t make the car go faster.”– Mona Shah
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Transcript
This transcript was produced using AI and subsequently edited for style and clarity. The edits do not alter the substance of the speaker’s remarks
Mona Shah (0:59 – 1:09)
Hey, Rebecca, everyone in EB-5 and beyond probably knows one date right now, September 30th, 2026.
Rebecca Singh (1:10 – 1:39)
Yes, but you know, almost no one agrees on what it actually means. Mona, we see investors, potential investors coming to us and thinking it’s the regional centre programme that’s going to expire. And it’s not.
That date is set for September 30th of 2027. And then we have another date that’s throwing at us. When is the amount, the investment amount going to be adjusted?
Is that September as well? That’s not. That’s also set for January 1st of 2027.
Mona Shah (1:40 – 2:11)
That’s right. RIA schedules the adjustment for January 1st, 2027, but we don’t know for sure that it is going to be that. But it is the grandfathering cutoff that I think is important that people understand.
File a qualifying regional centre petition, not a direct petition by that date. And it must be adjudicated even if Congress later lets the programme lapse. That’s all it does.
And that also is exactly why it does matter.
Rebecca Singh (2:12 – 2:33)
Yeah. So, I think today we wanted to make this episode into a myth debunking episode. So that there’s a lot of confusion out there.
I do like that word. Myth debunking. But before we debunk anything, tell us why.
Why is this grandfathering clause, why is it out there?
Mona Shah (2:34 – 3:16)
Yeah. I mean, it’s a lot of people who are new to the industry probably don’t remember. We remember.
And I think it’s important that people do understand why this clause exists at all. And then you kind of understand. It was really written to clean up a mess. And that was the mess from 2021.
If you remember, Rebecca, I mean, you were around in 2021. One day, Congress had renewed the regional centre programme almost as a reflex for years and years and then one day it simply didn’t. Do you recall what actually happened?
Why the programme went dark overnight?
Rebecca Singh (3:17 – 3:22)
Yeah, well, yeah, it just stopped. I think that was on June 30th of 2021.
Mona Shah (3:23 – 3:30)
Yeah, do you remember we had a week of it coming back when there was a when we had that lawsuit relating to the 900 regulation. Yeah.
Rebecca Singh (3:30 – 4:14)
Yes. Yeah. And that week, though, Mona, it was such panic.
And I can’t tell you how many calls we received from investors because that one week was just, I mean, even for us, it was like, what do we do? What do we tell our clients? The issue was that USCIS just stopped reviewing all EB-5 or regional centre EB-5 petitions.
So, the I-526 petitions at that time. So, those that were pending, they just stopped reviewing. And after and then what made it worse is that those that were actually approved, they also stopped any further adjudication or moving forward with those cases, whether you had an adjustment of status pending, if you had a consular processing interview, all of it was cancelled.
Mona Shah (4:15 – 5:06)
That’s right. I mean, nobody knows really what was going on in USCIS’s mind, whether they thought the programme was ending, but it certainly panicked everybody. And then when we later look back at the scale, I mean, IIUSA did do a data analysis from the period.
And I believe in their data analysis, they had something like 90% of historical EB-5 participation runs through regional centres. And so, the lapse swept roughly 32,600 committed investors and their families. There was nearly 12,000 held pending.
These are 12,000 I-526 petitions receiving no adjudication at all. And 20,630 just sat with approved petitions fully vetted, waiting for the conditional green card, which the government had stopped issuing.
Rebecca Singh (5:07 – 5:26)
Yeah. Can you imagine the mindset of just imagine the investors; you put all your money in here. What do you do?
What would have happened if, you know, they didn’t decide to continue with the programme? So, projects already had the funding. There was no way they were going to return capital at that time.
I mean, it was billions of dollars.
Mona Shah (5:27 – 6:03)
Yeah. Again, I think the same data shows it was $15 billion in committed capital, and there was an estimated $4.9 billion mid-flight and into the US economy, I think $10.3 billion already deployed. So, I think the figures were something like 487,000 American jobs in the risk column.
So basically, to make sure that this doesn’t happen again, folks, this is why we have this grandfathering clause. It was like, you don’t write anything else. You’re definitely going to write in a grandfathering clause.
Rebecca Singh (6:04 – 6:17)
Yeah. But at least that kind of helps investors. It helps us as well, because at least we know what’s happening.
We have a date to tell everyone and when to get these petitions filed. If something like this happens again.
Mona Shah (6:18 – 6:43)
Right, right, right. Okay. So back in 2022, straight after this period, obviously we had the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act, which came out in March of 2022.
And it was built, it has the promise, the grandfathering promise there. But in plain English, Rebecca, what does the grandfathering clause actually say? Because this has been played around with a lot.
Rebecca Singh (6:44 – 7:31)
So, in basic terms, if your petition was filed on or before September 30th of 2026, your application or petition must still be adjudicated even after the programme lapse. So, if, let’s say, if the programme lapse. Yes, exactly.
So if that, that again, that date is September 30th of 2027. So yes, there’s a year period in between that. If they decide to close or shut the regional centre programme, if you filed before September 30th of 2026, again, your application must be adjudicated and it will be kept open for you to receive the conditional green card and to adjudicate your I-829 petition to get the permanent green card.
Mona Shah (7:32 – 7:42)
Right. So again, in plain English, the clause exists because Congress has already proven that it’s going to let the programme lapse and leave investors stranded unless there was something there.
Rebecca Singh (7:43 – 7:57)
So, Mona, let’s get to debunking these myths. And I have the first one for you, which is everywhere. The regional centre programme is authorised through September 30th, 2027.
So, there is plenty of time. True or false?
Mona Shah (7:57 – 8:26)
Technically true, but it’s also a little misleading. It’s true because yes, the programme does run through September 30th, 2027. That’s simply the date the current authorisation runs out if Congress does nothing.
It is the date that webinars love because they would love to get investors all the way to the very last minute. And it sounds like, oh, we’ve got a lot of time yet, but it’s not a date that actually protects anyone. Yeah.
Rebecca Singh (8:27 – 8:34)
So, the date that actually buys you the safety or investor’s safety is September 30th of 2026.
Mona Shah (8:34 – 8:58)
Okay. So that’s right. So, you file a qualifying regional centre petition and there is an emphasis on the word qualifying.
We’ll discuss that in a minute. But you file a qualifying regional centre petition on or before September 30th, 2026, and you are grandfathered. Your case is carried on to its conclusion and the visa allocated, even if the programme is never renewed.
Rebecca Singh (8:59 – 9:11)
So, then there’s this gap here. You have from September 30th, 2026 to September 30th of 2027. And what does that actually mean for investors who file within that time period?
Mona Shah (9:11 – 9:44)
Well, it basically is as long as the programme stays authorised, then your case will be adjudicated. If USCIS loses the authority to finish the case, in the sense that if the programme is not authorised, and let’s say you file in February of September 2027. And by September, USCIS is still working on cases filed in 2026.
They’re even up to cases filed in 2027. They’re simply not going to touch your case.
Rebecca Singh (9:44 – 9:51)
Yeah. So, for everyone, again, the safe date is September 30th of 2026. Right, right.
Mona Shah (9:52 – 10:25)
However, there’s a lot of howevers, you know, and because regional centres have come to us and they’ve asked after we’ve explained this. And we’ve said, they’ve said, well, what can we do? Should we still take people’s money?
And we’ve told them, yes, but you have to have something there written. I do believe we have to have something written to say that you will put, let’s say you’ll have a safety valve. Maybe you keep the client’s money in escrow until you know for sure that the programme is going to be rescued by Congress.
Rebecca Singh (10:25 – 10:30)
Yeah. So, I think, I think this is where escrow will actually help projects now.
Mona Shah (10:30 – 10:33)
Oh, right. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah. Escrow’s been a pain.
Rebecca Singh (10:34 – 10:50)
Okay. But moving on, we’ve got myth number two. Filed by September 30th of 2026 and you lock in the 800,000 investment amount.
That’s a wrong date again, isn’t it? So what does the statute actually say about the amounts?
Mona Shah (10:51 – 11:12)
Yep. Wrong date again. There’s no such thing as locking in.
The grandfathering period does not lock in anything. The investment amount by statute automatically adjusts for petitions. That’s part of the statute.
And it will automatically go forward. I believe, Rebecca, the date is January 1st?
Rebecca Singh (11:13 – 11:37)
Yes. Of 2027. So it’s going to be a date for those potential applicants or petitioners that will be filing in that one-year gap period.
Not only are you now worried about whether or not Congress is going to authorise the programme on September 30th of 2027, the other issue is whether or not they’re going to increase that amount on January 1st of 2027.
Mona Shah (11:38 – 11:59)
Yeah. But it doesn’t mean to say that programmes, projects have to change. So that’s what happened previously.
If you recall when the programme changed, anyone who had an offering, any developer who had an offering had to suddenly redo all the documents. That’s not what’s going to happen here. You can still file, I believe.
Rebecca Singh (11:59 – 12:00)
Yeah.
Mona Shah (12:00 – 12:02)
Well, I don’t know.
Rebecca Singh (12:06 – 12:23)
Right now we have the proposed rules that have come out. And right now it seems that it looks like the amount may stay the same for 2027. But again, these are still proposed rules.
So, there’s still a lot that’s going to come, I think, within the next few months on that.
Mona Shah (12:23 – 12:59)
Yes, you’re right, Rebecca. And honestly, everything can change. We don’t know.
But right now, it does appear to us, I have not read anything in RIA which says that if you have an existing offering and your offering can’t continue, I could be wrong. And we will come back to you if we know we are wrong and we’ll see what the regs are going to come out and say. But I think that a tidy takeaway for regional centre investors is, you know, files by September 30th, 2026.
And if the amount does go up, it’s going to be an easy fix because it will be an amendment for existing projects.
Rebecca Singh (12:59 – 13:11)
Yeah, I think it’ll be interesting to see because I feel that even now, we have issues with amendments. We don’t know what is an amendment, what’s not, and with the cost. So, I think, yeah, that would be something interesting.
Mona Shah (13:11 – 13:25)
But I do think that we do need to say right now, if anybody gives you a figure, we don’t know what it is. The figure, the final number really doesn’t exist until DHS publishes it in the federal register. Exactly.
Rebecca Singh (13:25 – 13:38)
As we move on to myth number three, so grandfathering protects every EB-5 investor, so everyone needs to race to the deadline. Who does this clause actually cover? Did you write that question, Rebecca?
Mona Shah (13:41 – 14:15)
Race to the deadline, that sounds, yeah. Marketing, right? That’s what every project is going to say.
Come on, you’ve got to get there. Okay, if it’s a regional centre concern, there is a big capital full stop there because the whole point of grandfathering is really to insulate the regional centre investors from a regional centre programme lapse. It only answers a problem which regional centres have.
It does not affect direct EB-5 investors. They’re not in this conversation at all.
Rebecca Singh (14:15 – 14:33)
And that’s the interesting part. So, and I think we’re going to get into a bit more detail a bit later, but I want to debunk one more myth, which is file before the deadline and you are home free. Grandfathering means approval.
Where does the protection actually stop? I think this is the confusion.
Mona Shah (14:34 – 14:46)
Yeah, no, no, no. Grandfathering is no approval. Grandfathering is no guarantee that you’re going to file at a certain amount.
Grandfathering is just adjudication, which now I think we have said like 19 times on this episode, Rebecca.
Rebecca Singh (14:48 – 15:16)
But yeah, but I think, you know, with this deadline, this pending deadline, there’s going to be a lot of skeletal filings, which we have discussed on this podcast in the past with the many deadlines that we’ve had. And I think that’s where potential investors need to understand that you are just being grandfathered. Your petition will be adjudicated.
It’s not just going to stop, but you must have a petition that’s approvable upon filing.
Mona Shah (15:16 – 15:34)
Oh yeah. And there’s one more thing that I did see. The grandfathering also doesn’t do anything about per country visa backlogs.
They march to their own brim drum, unfortunately. So we don’t even know. Next month we could have a backlog.
It’s got nothing to do with the September 30th deadline.
Rebecca Singh (15:34 – 15:38)
Yeah, yeah. That’s a whole new category in itself.
Mona Shah (15:39 – 15:51)
So, I think we could really say the grandfathering is like a seat belt. It’s not a fast pass.
It keeps the crash from hurting you, but it doesn’t make the car go faster.
Rebecca Singh (15:53 – 16:14)
But now that we’ve, you know, debunked all these myths, Mona, I think you brought up an interesting point before, and we talked about the direct EB-5 programme. Yes. Now all of this, what we’re talking about is only the regional centre programme, as the direct programme is actually in law.
So that’s not going anywhere.
Mona Shah (16:14 – 16:20)
Yeah. The regional centre programme is not a permanent fixture at this point, which is interesting.
Rebecca Singh (16:21 – 16:29)
I know what you’re going to ask me. Mona, look into your crystal ball here and tell us, do you think it’s going to be a permanent programme?
Mona Shah (16:30 – 17:09)
Honestly, for two reasons, and I’ll give you the logical, then I’ll give you the cynical. No, I don’t think it’s going to be permanent. Number one, I don’t think that we’re ready yet.
I think there’s still a lot of, there’s still a lot of caveats. I feel like that not all of Congress is behind this, but the real reason in my estimation is the fact that whilst there is reauthorization required every five years, money, Congressional staff keep getting money from lobbyists. So, where there’s money, there’s always a reason not to do it.
Rebecca Singh (17:09 – 17:25)
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I agree with you on that.
And I think also too, I mean, after four years of when, since RIA came out of 2022, they’re now putting out proposed rules and regulations. Yeah. That’s going to take a while, I think, to even come out.
Mona Shah (17:26 – 17:44)
And I think, I think it’s so shows that we are definitely having a reauthorization. I mean, you know, otherwise USCS has just wasted four years, and Congress spent all that time. So, I do believe that if I was a betting person, I would put everything on the red that yes, it’s going to be reauthorised.
Rebecca Singh (17:45 – 17:54)
I agree. But I think to be on the safe side, you try to get your application in before that deadline of September 30th, 2026.
Mona Shah (17:55 – 18:07)
But again, realistically speaking, yeah, we know it’s not going to happen. We have projects, we have people, they’re just not going to have their application ready. And there are so many projects in the pipeline.
Oh, yes.
Rebecca Singh (18:08 – 18:30)
Yes. And I mean, I think it’s a popular programme. I mean, it’s a way of getting, we get jobs created, funding in, investors from countries where are backlogged in other categories.
It’s a way for them to get the green card. I really don’t see it going anywhere. I think it’ll still keep getting reauthorised.
I don’t think it’ll become permanent, but I just don’t see it going anywhere right away. Yeah.
Mona Shah (18:30 – 18:30)
Yeah.
Rebecca Singh (18:31 – 18:46)
Yeah. Luckily enough, like we said, the direct programme is still there. So, for anyone that doesn’t have, you know, is worried about these dates or I want to have something on the safer side as well, may want to look into direct entrepreneurial projects.
Mona Shah (18:47 – 19:03)
Right. If you do have deadline anxiety, I think really consider doing a direct project. But saying that the figure relating to the increase of the minimum amount of capital does affect the direct as well as the regional centre.
Rebecca Singh (19:04 – 19:38)
Yes. Yes. So that could potentially have an effect starting January 1st of 2027.
Let’s make it concrete for the listener. Three investors walk into the office. I know.
And we’ve been chatting all this time and let’s put it down to three investors walk into the office. Where does each one actually stand?
I’ll make it easy. We’ll go through one at a time. Seat one, regional centre investor filed on or before September 30th of 2026.
All right.
Mona Shah (19:38 – 19:50)
Easy, easy, easy, easy peasy. Grandfathered. The petition must be adjudicated and the visa allocated regardless of any future lapse.
This one is your safe seat. Yeah. Okay.
Rebecca Singh (19:51 – 19:59)
Seat number two, regional centre investor filed October 1st, 2026, through September 30th of 2027.
Mona Shah (20:00 – 20:53)
Valid only while the programme remains authorised and exposed if Congress lets it expire without renewal. So, the later the filing, the sharper the risk. So, this seat is kind of split two on price file before January 1st, 2027 and the current amounts still apply.
File on or after that date and the CPI adjusted amounts do. Last but not least, seat three, direct or your standalone investor. Another straightforward one, not bound for programme survival.
So, you can file all the way to September and beyond for 2027 and you will be adjudicated. The direct programme is permanent. Grandfathering is irrelevant.
Nothing about the regional centre sunset threatens direct EB-5.
Rebecca Singh (20:54 – 21:03)
Yeah. So, the only issue that investors in a direct or standalone would have to worry about is if the amount increases in January of 2027.
Mona Shah (21:04 – 21:26)
Yeah. And just before we end, Rebecca, I just think it’s interesting because we’re reading all the different blogs and some of them are really dramatic and, you know, Oscar winning. But one of the blogs did say that they thought that demand might spike and supply might shrink.
I think it was the ILW one.
Rebecca Singh (21:27 – 21:39)
I think they’ve always said that. I mean, I don’t know. We’re in July.
Yeah. And I’m, I’m hesitant because I would say this and then all of a sudden we get this major rush coming in.
Mona Shah (21:40 – 22:00)
But they’re saying that and we are actually seeing this too, Rebecca, that high unemployment area projects are in oversupply and rural projects are relatively few. And there really is not too much choice left in rural. So that’s what I think ILW is getting at.
Rebecca Singh (22:00 – 22:09)
Yes, but I don’t know. There’s always, like we said, projects will always find a way. I’m sure there’s more than we think that’s out there.
Mona Shah (22:10 – 22:18)
Just to wrap up, I would like to ask you, do we prepare for an EB-5 tsunami in June, July, August and September of 2026?
Rebecca Singh (22:20 – 22:43)
So I hesitate to say this because we’re in July of 2026. I don’t see the tsunami now and I don’t think anyone has. We are busy, but I’m sure you see September 1st, end of August, September.
I think that’s when everyone’s going to get their act together and decide that they wanted to file before the September 30th, 2026 deadline.
Mona Shah (22:44 – 23:18)
Yeah, I agree. But here’s my other take on this. You can’t really compare, which is what you can’t compare to 2019, because 2019 was the difference was 500 to 900.
It was double. Whereas here we’re talking about possibly 940, maybe 960, maybe 920. And there was even stuff in the proposal to keep the 800 as is.
So, I think that if somebody has 800,000, moving up to 900 isn’t going to be such a big deal for them.
Rebecca Singh (23:19 – 23:45)
Yeah, I don’t think it’s going to be the end of it for some of these investors. But I would say that everyone should be prepared. I think at this point, it’s not 2019 either, where things were just kind of getting in and you can answer an easy RFE.
This administration, it has become tougher. And so just be prepared to, you know, get more than a skeletal filing in.