FY 2026, No Backlog: Why Indian and Chinese EB-5 Investors Just Got a Green Light
LIVE FROM IIUSA 2026 | Washington, DC | May 1, 2026
Charlie Oppenheim on the EB-5 Visa Outlook for India and China
At the 2026 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum, Charlie Oppenheim joined Lee Li and Christine Chen on the EB-5 Data Analysis Panel to walk through FY 2025 issuance, post-RIA reserved category approvals, and his cut-off date forecast for the two countries closest to a backlog.
| About Charlie Oppenheim: For over two decades, both the White House and Congressional leadership have turned to Charlie for guidance on how the green card numerical control process could be updated to meet intended goals. After retirement from government service, he has continued to use his expertise to demystify immigrant visa backlogs and forecast visa movement. |
The Headline: No Reserved Category Cut-Off Dates for FY 2026
As rural cases are given priority processing, rural visa numbers are being used at a higher rate, and the demand pressure on HUA is being deferred rather than accelerated.
Oppenheim told the room that, on current data, he does not expect cut-off dates for the High Unemployment Area (HUA) reserved (set-aside) category in FY 2026, which ends on September 30, 2026. He pointed instead to FY 2027 or later as the likelier window for any HUA final action date to appear in the Visa Bulletin.
His reasoning rests on USCIS’s new Inventory Management system, announced in March 2026, which prioritizes adjudication of rural project petitions ahead of HUA petitions. Because rural cases are given priority processing, rural visa numbers are being used at a higher rate, and the demand pressure on HUA is being deferred rather than accelerated.
Oppenheim said that, while a rural backlog will arrive sooner than HUA, it is not expected within FY 2026. When it does materialize, his expectation is that the rural final action date would be sometime in 2023 or early 2024 for I-526/E priority dates.
FY 2025 EB-5 Visa Issuance
The first slide tracked monthly EB-5 visa issuance via consular processing across FY2025, separating Unreserved from Reserved numbers. Issuance in the Unreserved category dropped sharply after a 1.4K spike in March 2025 and has settled in the 332 to 478 range for most months since.
Monthly EB-5 Visa Issuance via Consular Processing, FY2025
| Month (CY-Mo) | Unreserved | Reserved | Monthly Total |
| 2024-10 | 1,900 | 5 | 1,905 |
| 2024-11 | 1,500 | 25 | 1,525 |
| 2024-12 | 1,100 | 36 | 1,136 |
| 2025-01 | 845 | 44 | 889 |
| 2025-02 | 773 | 93 | 866 |
| 2025-03 | 1,400 | 232 | 1,632 |
| 2025-04 | 478 | 62 | 540 |
| 2025-05 | 381 | 71 | 452 |
| 2025-06 | 332 | 50 | 382 |
| 2025-07 | 339 | 179 | 518 |
| 2025-08 | 420 | 92 | 512 |
| 2025-09 | 339 | 33 | 372 |
Source: U.S. Department of State. Prepared by IIUSA. Data via the IIUSA EB-5 Visa Data Dashboard.
The second half of the slide reframed the same fiscal year against availability. Of the four categories, only Unreserved came close to using its allocation. Rural, HUA, and Infrastructure together left more than 6,100 visa numbers on the table.
FY2025 EB-5 Visa Issuance (CP Only) vs. Availability
| Category | FY25 Issuance | % Used | # Unused Visas |
| Unreserved | 9,831 | 84% | 1,889 |
| Rural Area | 700 | 16% | 3,716 |
| HUA | 219 | 10% | 1,989 |
| Infrastructure | 3 | 1% | 439 |
* CP Only. AOS visa usage is not included. Source: U.S. Department of State. Prepared by IIUSA.
Where Are Indian and Chinese Investors Filing?
The country-of-birth slide offered one of the more striking patterns of the morning. Across all post-RIA I-526E and I-526 approvals between May 2022 and June 2025, China and India together accounted for 80% of total reserved-category approvals. The two populations are, however, choosing different categories.
Chinese investors have concentrated heavily in Rural projects, with 1,040 approvals in Rural compared with only 86 in HUA. Indian investors have leaned the other way, with 137 HUA approvals against 405 in Rural. This split is consistent with what the panel reported on filing trends overall: 48% of investors have filed under HUA and 47% in Rural, with the remainder in Rural & HUA or Infrastructure.
I-526E and I-526 Approvals by Investor Country of Birth and Project Category (Post-RIA Only)
| I-526E & I-526 | HUA | Rural | Rural & HUA | Infra. | Total Reserved | % Total |
| China | 86 | 1,040 | 4 | 0 | 1,130 | 54% |
| India | 137 | 405 | 5 | 0 | 547 | 26% |
| Taiwan | 45 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 3% |
| Vietnam | 29 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 3% |
| South Korea | 39 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 2% |
| ROW | 68 | 182 | 5 | 0 | 255 | 12% |
| Category TOTAL | 404 | 1,685 | 17 | 0 | 2,106 | 100% |
| % in Total Approval | 19% | 80% | 1% | 0% | 100% | – |
Data Range: May 1, 2022 to June 30, 2025. Missing January 2025 data. Source: USCIS (via FOIA). Prepared by IIUSA.
Adjudications: A 97% Approval Rate on Reserved Cases
The third slide aggregated approvals, denials, and withdrawals across the same Post-RIA window. Of 2,167 reserved-category cases adjudicated, 2,106 were approved, 61 were denied, and 122 were withdrawn. The approval rate sits at 97% for HUA, 97% for Rural, and 100% for Rural & HUA.
I-526E and I-526 Adjudications by Project Category (Post-RIA Only)
| I-526E & I-526 | HUA | Rural | Rural & HUA | Infra. | Total Reserved |
| Approval | 404 | 1,685 | 17 | 0 | 2,106 |
| Denial | 11 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
| Withdrawal | 59 | 62 | 1 | 0 | 122 |
| Cases Adjudicated | 415 | 1,735 | 17 | 0 | 2,167 |
| % in Total Adj. | 19% | 80% | 1% | 0% | 100% |
| Approval Rate | 97% | 97% | 100% | – | – |
Data Range: May 1, 2022 to June 30, 2025. Missing January 2025 data. Source: USCIS (via FOIA). Prepared by IIUSA.
The case-approval count by fiscal year tracks the post-RIA ramp: 0 approvals in FY 2022, 63 in FY 2023, 1,025 in FY 2024, and 3,171 in FY 2025. The acceleration is the reason category-specific cut-off conversations are now real conversations rather than theoretical ones.
China and India: The Country-Specific Forecast
On the Unreserved category, Oppenheim said his expectation is that movement will pick up once the remaining backlog of cases filed in 2017 and earlier (the bulk of which were filed between 2015 and 2017) is processed through. From there, his country-specific outlook split sharply.
For China-born investors in the Unreserved category, he projected approximately five to six years before the existing caseload is cleared. For India-born investors in the Unreserved category, his projection was that the queue may be almost eliminated by FY 2027.
On the reserved side, Oppenheim noted an unusual operational pattern: visa processing for reserved-category cases is currently moving faster at the U.S. Consulate in Guangzhou than for adjustment-of-status filings inside the United States. He also flagged an open question on the panel’s mind: if the unreserved queue clears while reserved categories are backlogged, will investors be allowed to opt into the unreserved category?
Reading the Visa Bulletin: What to Watch For
Oppenheim offered a practical early-warning rule. The State Department posts any negative impact, including any new backlog date, in the Visa Bulletin at least one to two months in advance. On that timing, he does not expect a new EB-5 backlog to appear in either the June or July 2026 visa bulletins.
He also told attendees to pay particular attention to Chart B (Dates for Filing). In his view, that is where movement is likely to surface first. A good point to note is that Chart B dates are where the State Department thinks the cut-off dates will be at the end of the fiscal year.
Practical Takeaways
- Indian investors weighing HUA versus Rural should factor in USCIS’s adjudication priority for rural cases. The relative speed advantage on the rural side is what is keeping HUA off the cut-off date list for now.
- Chinese investors heavily concentrated in Rural should anticipate that rural will be the first reserved category to face a cut-off date, with retrogression potentially landing on 2023 or early 2024 priority dates if Oppenheim’s forecast holds.
- Unreserved-category investors from India are looking at a meaningfully shorter projected horizon than their China-born counterparts, with FY 2027 in view for the Indian queue and roughly five to six years for China.
- All EB-5 stakeholders should monitor Chart B in each Visa Bulletin and treat any change there as an early signal, with at least one to two months of advance notice before a final action date moves.